VanEck Report Signals Bitcoin Supply Tightening as Long-Term Holder Selling Slows

1 hour ago 2 sources positive

Key takeaways:

  • Reduced selling by long-term holders suggests growing conviction that could support Bitcoin's price floor.
  • Miners' shift to AI infrastructure may signal structural changes in Bitcoin's supply dynamics ahead.
  • Declining on-chain activity points to capital migration towards derivatives and ETF products.

Asset management firm VanEck has published its mid-March Bitcoin ChainCheck report, identifying a significant reduction in selling activity among long-term Bitcoin holders as a "potentially constructive" signal for the market. According to the report, transfer volume fell month-over-month across all age cohorts of the asset, indicating reduced distribution pressure from experienced investors.

The report, authored by Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, noted that long-term holders—typically defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more—have slowed their pace of selling. This deceleration is viewed as a key indicator of market conviction, as it suggests seasoned participants are choosing to hold rather than realize profits, which can alleviate sustained sell-side pressure.

Miner selling pressure remained stable despite a challenging environment. Total mining sector revenue dropped 11% month-over-month, and mining-related stocks fell 7%. However, Bitcoin outflows from miners to exchanges increased by just 1% in nominal terms. The report states that most operators are attempting to preserve their remaining reserves rather than liquidate aggressively. Aggregate miner balances, excluding wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, stood at approximately 684,000 BTC, a decline of only 0.5% year-over-year. During that period, roughly 164,000 new BTC were mined, implying the sector sold virtually all new issuance to fund operations.

VanEck also highlighted a structural reconfiguration within the mining industry, with several companies pivoting toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Bitdeer liquidated its entire BTC treasury, while Core Scientific and MARA plan to divest holdings to finance this business transition. The report warned of "growing capital pressures" on miners as pure Bitcoin mining economics tighten.

Additional on-chain metrics showed a 31% drop in overall transfer volume and a 27% decline in daily fees, partly attributed to activity shifting toward derivatives and ETFs.

In a separate development, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini faces a new investor lawsuit, adding to the legal pressures on centralized platforms. Details remain limited, but the suit targets Gemini's operations and obligations to investors, joining ongoing disputes related to its defunct Earn lending program.

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