Data from CryptoQuant reveals a negative XRP Exchange Absorption Score on Binance, indicating persistent selling pressure. The daily reading stands at approximately -2.94 million XRP, with a 7-day average of -7.79 million XRP. This negative score signifies that supply is entering the exchange faster than it is being absorbed by buyers, creating a marginal but persistent supply overhang.
The analysis of the absorption score chart from November 2024 through mid-March 2026 shows a normalization from extreme demand conditions seen during XRP's late 2024 rally. A notable event occurred in late January, where a single outflow spike exceeded 600 million XRP, corresponding with significant price volatility. Since February, daily flows have compressed into a tighter range of 50 million to 150 million XRP, representing a low-volatility environment that could precede a market breakout.
Despite the negative on-chain metrics from Binance, contrasting signals are emerging from other market segments. XRP's price recently experienced a 10.5% drop over three days, trading around $1.42–$1.45 and testing a bull flag breakout support zone. Concurrently, record withdrawals of XRP from South Korea's Upbit exchange suggest accumulation, a pattern historically linked to subsequent rallies. Furthermore, XRP's 90-day average whale flow has turned positive for the first time since early 2024, indicating a potential shift from distribution to accumulation by large holders.
Macro factors are also at play. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% on March 18 weighed on risk assets. Institutional participation remains tepid, with US-listed XRP spot ETFs recording zero net inflows on a recent Wednesday, though cumulative inflows sit at $1.21 billion. The technical outlook suggests the near-term path of least resistance remains lower unless demand improves materially, with key resistance levels at $1.50 and $1.55.
