On-chain analytics firms CryptoQuant and Glassnode have released data painting a nuanced picture of Bitcoin's current market structure, highlighting key metrics that historically signal market bottoms while noting current investor pain remains below extreme capitulation levels.
CryptoQuant's analysis focuses on the Bitcoin Realized Price, an on-chain indicator tracking the average cost basis of all BTC holders, currently sitting at $54,000. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to revisit or trade below this level during bear markets, as widespread losses exhaust profit-taking sell pressure. However, in the current cycle, Bitcoin has maintained a position above this line since breaking through it at the end of the 2022 bear market, suggesting the average investor is still in a state of net unrealized profit.
Despite this aggregate green status, a significant segment of the market is underwater. CryptoQuant points to the Realized Price for Short-Term Holders—investors who bought within the last 155 days—which is currently floating above the spot price. "Recent buyers are underwater, creating sell pressure on every bounce," the firm noted. This is echoed by the situation at Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin treasury company, whose realized price sits around $75,600, a level where the recent rally faced rejection.
Concurrently, Glassnode's latest weekly report reveals that the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss has stabilized above 15% of the market's capitalization over the past two months. This metric, which sums the paper losses of all underwater coins relative to BTC's total market value, indicates a structure "closely resembling conditions seen during Q2 2022." While elevated, Glassnode emphasizes that these levels remain much lower than the extreme capitulation seen during the FTX collapse, which marked the 2022 cycle bottom.
The report cautions that resolving such a scale of unrealized loss historically requires time, further price depression, or a combination of both. "A sharp V-shaped recovery remains a theoretical possibility, but given the current magnitude of unrealized losses, it would demand an extraordinary and sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe," Glassnode explained.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading around $68,400, consolidating sideways after recent bearish momentum, down approximately 3.5% over the past week.
