Financial analysts at investment management firm Bernstein have issued a significant report asserting that cryptocurrency-related equities are trading at prices far below their fundamental value, with the upcoming first-quarter earnings season potentially marking a critical turning point and a market bottom. The analysis, which provides a data-driven counter-narrative to recent market pessimism, was reported by The Block on March 15, 2025.
Bernstein maintains "Outperform" ratings on three key public companies: Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Figure (FIGR). While the firm slightly adjusted price targets downward—lowering Coinbase's target to $330 from $440, Robinhood's to $130 from $160, and Figure's to $67 from $72—it frames the current valuation gap as a strategic long-term buying opportunity. The stocks of these companies have fallen between 57% and 62% from their 2025 peaks.
The report highlights that market volatility in late 2024 and early 2025 has created a divergence where stock prices have decoupled from underlying business health. Bernstein's analysis digs into operational fundamentals, noting that metrics like monthly transaction volumes, custody assets, and subscription services have remained stable or grown, even during periods of price consolidation in the underlying crypto markets.
Each company is praised for its distinct defensive and growth strategies. For Coinbase, Bernstein highlights the exchange's growing stablecoin revenue and diversified service income as providing a more resilient financial base against market volatility. The firm estimates derivatives could account for up to 14% of Coinbase's trading revenue by 2027, while stablecoin fees—particularly those linked to Circle's USDC—may contribute about 19% of total revenue next year.
For Robinhood, the focus is on the platform's diversification into new revenue streams, including prediction markets. Bernstein sees prediction markets evolving into a $240 billion industry, with event contracts potentially contributing about 17% of Robinhood's trading revenue and roughly 10% of total revenue next year.
Figure is framed as the clearest play on tokenization. Bernstein forecasts its consumer-loan marketplace volumes will reach $12.8 billion this year and $16.5 billion by 2027 as the company expands beyond home equity lines into adjacent categories like small business and auto lending.
The first-quarter earnings reports, typically released in April and May, are identified as a potential catalyst. Bernstein suggests that if these firms report strong fundamental metrics—such as user growth, revenue diversification, or profitability—that contradict the depressed stock prices, a rapid market reassessment could occur. The firm continues to forecast double-digit growth in revenue and earnings for these companies through 2027.
Bernstein explicitly describes the situation as a "long-term buying opportunity," acknowledging that short-term price movements may remain volatile but arguing that the intrinsic value of these businesses is not reflected in their current stock prices. The opportunity is tied to a broader shift toward tokenized financial infrastructure, including stablecoins, tokenized credit, and onchain prediction markets.
