Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of matching a historic bearish milestone, potentially closing March with its sixth consecutive monthly loss. According to Coinglass data, this would tie the record set only once before, between August 2018 and January 2019.
As of the report, Bitcoin trades around $66,600. To avoid setting the new record, it would need to rally more than 1% in the final 15 hours of March to close above the month's opening price of $67,300. The current downtrend has been severe: Bitcoin fell 4% in October 2025, 18% in November, and 3% in December. The losses continued into 2026 with a 10% drop in January, a 15% decline in February, and a roughly 1% dip in March so far.
While the 2018-2019 streak was followed by five consecutive months of gains, offering a historical precedent for recovery, analysts warn the current environment is different. Technical and macro conditions suggest downside pressure could continue.
Technically, Bitcoin remains above key long-term support levels, including its 200-week moving average at $59,268 and its realized price (average on-chain cost basis) at $54,177, per Glassnode. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin has typically fallen below both levels and remained there for a sustained period.
Macroeconomic headwinds are also significant. The ongoing Middle East conflict has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel for over a month, complicating central bank decisions on interest rate cuts or further tightening. Simultaneously, renewed concerns about quantum computing risks have added another layer of market uncertainty.
A minor positive note is that Bitcoin has edged slightly higher since the onset of the Middle East conflict, showing some resilience in a broader risk-off environment. However, the dominant narrative remains one of caution as the asset approaches a symbolic low point in its recent history.
