Tesla shares continued their downward trend as the electric vehicle maker prepared to report its first-quarter 2026 delivery figures on April 2. The stock fell 1.16% to $357.44 in early trading on Friday, needing to close above $367.96 to end a five-week losing streak—its longest since January 2025.
Wall Street consensus, via Bloomberg, expects Tesla to deliver approximately 364,645 to 366,000 vehicles globally for Q1 2026. This would represent an increase of roughly 9% year-over-year from the 336,681 units delivered in Q1 2025. However, analysts caution that this growth comes off a weak comparison base, as last year's figures were impacted by the Model Y Juniper production transition and anti-Elon Musk protests at dealerships.
GLJ Research reiterated its Sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $24.86, despite raising its delivery estimate to 368,478 units for the quarter—0.8% above Wall Street consensus. The firm attributed recent improvements not to underlying demand recovery but to "margin-dilutive subsidy arbitrage in Korea," and highlighted that projected deliveries are still 25.9% below the peak of 497,099 units recorded in Q3 2025.
Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas nudged his Q1 estimate up slightly to 370,000 vehicles but cut his price target sharply to $420 from $520, citing compressed valuation multiples across Magnificent 7 stocks. He maintained a Buy rating, citing potential tailwinds from rising used Tesla prices and higher gas prices.
The delivery report comes amid significant headwinds for Tesla. Buyers in the US lost access to the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September 2025, which previously boosted Q3 2025 deliveries to 497,000 units. Demand trends in China have been softer, and European sales have slumped due to consumer backlash tied to Musk's political role, rising competition from Volkswagen, and aggressive pricing from Chinese automakers like BYD.
Tesla's full-year deliveries have declined for two consecutive years, dropping from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024, then to 1.64 million in 2025. For 2026, Wall Street projects a modest recovery to about 1.69 million units.
Investors are awaiting fresh catalysts beyond delivery numbers, with focus on Tesla's robo-taxi business, updates on its Optimus humanoid robot, and the recently announced Terafab project—a partnership with SpaceX aiming to produce over 1 terawatt of AI compute annually by ramping production from 2027. A potential SpaceX IPO, with reports suggesting Elon Musk may allocate around 30% of shares to retail investors, could also influence Tesla sentiment.
Wall Street maintains a Hold consensus on TSLA, with an average price target of $395.33—implying about 11% upside. The stock is down approximately 21% year-to-date in 2026, though it remains up about 35% over the past year.
