Bitcoin's price staged a significant recovery, climbing over 3% to reclaim the $69,000 level on Monday, marking its highest point in over a week. The rally was technically driven, fueled by a massive short squeeze after an Axios report indicated the U.S. and Iran were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire, briefly improving risk sentiment.
The move saw Bitcoin break above key resistance levels, including a bearish trend line at $67,650 on the hourly chart. The price action created a 24-hour range from $66,634 to $69,350, a swing of over $2,700. Analysts note that the surge was amplified by extremely one-sided market positioning, with traders heavily betting on further downside following last week's sentiment collapse.
Liquidation data from the derivatives market underscores the squeeze. Over the past 24 hours, $273.8 million in futures positions were liquidated across 81,819 traders. Short positions accounted for the vast majority, with $196.7 million in shorts liquidated compared to $77.1 million in longs—a ratio of nearly 3-to-1. The largest single liquidation event was a $10.17 million ETH-USDT short position on Binance.
While Bitcoin led the charge, the broader market followed. Ether (ETH) outperformed, rising 3.7% to $2,130, while Solana (SOL) and XRP saw gains of 2% and 2.2%, respectively. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization reclaimed the $2.5 trillion level.
Despite the rally, deep skepticism remains in the market. Prediction markets on Polymarket show fading optimism for an imminent resolution. The contract for a ceasefire by April 7 sits at just 4%, down from 12% a week ago. Contracts for later dates have also seen declines, indicating the market is pricing in a prolonged conflict. Social sentiment data from Santiment had also reached its most bearish skew since the war began entering the weekend.
Technically, Bitcoin's move reclaims the top of its established five-week trading range between $65,000 and $73,000 but does not constitute a definitive breakout. Key resistance levels are seen at $69,250, $69,500, and then $71,500. Support lies at $68,500 and $68,000. Analysts caution that the sustainability of this bounce hinges on whether the reported ceasefire talks materialize into a tangible agreement or are walked back, as has happened with previous headlines.
