The XRP price has been mired in a persistent downtrend since reaching a cycle peak above $3.5 in 2025, having declined more than 50% from those highs. Technical analysis reveals the cryptocurrency is trapped in a bearish structure characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, according to pseudonymous analyst Quantitive Alpha.
A critical development is the formation of a premium Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could act as a short-term magnet for the price. The analyst suggests XRP may first move upward in a corrective move to fill this FVG and rebalance market inefficiencies, potentially sweeping Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) in the process. However, this move is viewed as a precursor to a more significant bearish continuation.
Once the imbalance is filled, the price is likely to reverse and target lower Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL), continuing the dominant downtrend. The only path to a bullish reversal would be a sustained breakout above the premium FVG zone, signaling a shift in the higher timeframe structure—a scenario currently deemed less likely.
On-chain data from Glassnode underscores the market's weakness, revealing that over 56% of the circulating XRP supply is held at a loss, indicating widespread stress among holders and weak underlying demand. The price is currently holding near a key structural pivot zone around $1.10.
Analyst outlooks for XRP are deeply divided, with near-term price targets capped around $2.00, while longer-term projections vary wildly between a drop to $0.90 and a potential rise to $8. This reflects significant uncertainty in both retail sentiment and broader market flows.
