New data analysis reveals that the vast majority of traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are not earning enough to replace a full-time income, challenging narratives of easy profitability. Crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov's research, covering data from April 2024 through April 1, 2026, found that while nearly 1% of Polymarket traders earned over $5,000 in a single month, only 0.1% repeated that success the following month. Crucially, a mere 0.015% of traders were able to sustain monthly profits of $5,000 or more for four consecutive months.
The average monthly salary in the United States is approximately $5,220, making this a key benchmark for income replacement. Sergeenkov's findings indicate that the idea of quitting a day job to trade on prediction markets is unrealistic for 99.99% of participants. The data shows extreme profit concentration: only about 30% of the over 1.7 million trading addresses have ever been profitable, with roughly 70% recording losses. Furthermore, fewer than 0.04% of traders account for over 70% of total realized profits on the platform.
The analysis also highlights the transient nature of success. Of the 6,600 wallet addresses that achieved average monthly profits above $5,000, only 172 (2.6%) remained active for more than a year. "Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave," Sergeenkov noted. The report contrasts these statistics with anecdotal success stories, such as former financial risk analyst Logan Sudeith, who reportedly profited $100,000 in a single month, and claims from figures like "Tulip King" that Polymarket is an easy place to make six figures.
Sergeenkov acknowledged limitations in his methodology, noting it only factored in realized profits and losses, though he stated that 96% of trading volume comes from already resolved markets. The core imbalance is attributed to the structure of prediction markets, which are short-term, event-driven systems that reward superior information, faster execution, and larger capital—advantages typically held by professional traders and well-funded participants, leaving most retail users at a disadvantage.
