Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee has declared that the stock market has reached its bottom, a signal he believes will directly benefit Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). In a CNBC appearance and via social media, Lee pointed to a proposed ceasefire in the Iran conflict as a "positive rate of change inflection" that marks the turning point.
Lee's analysis hinges on two key observations. First, despite escalating geopolitical tensions from mid-March to early April—which saw oil prices surge from $87 to $116—the S&P 500 rose from 6,300 to 6,600, demonstrating resilience. Second, the announcement of a ceasefire triggered an immediate market reaction: a 2.5% equity rally, a 15% crash in oil prices, and the VIX volatility index falling below 20 in a single session.
Lee stated that a break above the S&P 500's 200-day moving average at 6,617 would trigger "a decisive move higher." E-mini futures had already surpassed this level, trading at 6,820 by Thursday morning. He identified five preferred investment areas for 2025: the Energy sector (XLE), the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks, software sectors, Bitcoin, and Ethereum.
The implications for cryptocurrency are direct. Lee argues that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are beneficiaries of a bottom in equities, as risk-on assets tend to move in concert. Bitcoin's surge past $72,000 late Wednesday coincided with a 1.9% jump in S&P 500 futures. A sustained equity recovery would remove a major macro headwind that has kept Bitcoin range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000 for six weeks.
On-chain data supports the timing of a potential bottom. Bitcoin's realized price sits at $54,286, just 21% below its spot price—the closest approach to this metric that historically defines cycle bottoms outside of outright crashes. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index spent the past month in single digits, its most bearish sustained reading since the 2022 market bottom.
Ethereum has additional bullish catalysts. The Ethereum Foundation recently completed its target of staking 70,000 ETH (worth roughly $143 million), reducing selling pressure. Spot Ethereum ETF flows also turned positive, with $120 million in inflows on Monday—the highest since mid-March. Furthermore, Tom Lee's firm, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), is the largest corporate Ethereum holder, with 4.8 million ETH (worth ~$10 billion). Bitmine purchased 71,252 ETH last week, its biggest single-week buy since December 2025, and is actively targeting ownership of 5% of total ether supply.
However, the analysis faces immediate tests. Iran's parliament stated late Wednesday that three clauses of the ceasefire had already been breached, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and oil rebounded 2% to $97 on Thursday. If the truce unravels, Lee's bottom call—and the associated rally for equities and crypto—could be invalidated.
