A prominent bearish analyst known as Doctor Profit has revealed his detailed trading strategy for Bitcoin, anticipating a final relief rally before a significant downturn. He predicts Bitcoin could surge to the $79,000-$84,000 range before crashing to a bear market bottom around $40,000. Drawing parallels to the 2022 cycle, where BTC fell from $68,000 to $33,000 before a rally to $48,000 and a final crash to $16,000, he argues the current market is merely experiencing a relief rally within a broader bear trend.
Doctor Profit outlines a specific plan to capitalize on this expected decline. Using a hypothetical $100,000 budget with 5x leverage, he details a tiered short-selling strategy. This includes placing $5,000 short orders at price points $79,250, $80,250, $81,250, and $82,250. Larger orders of $10,000 would be placed at $83,500, $20,000 orders at $84,250 and $85,000, and a final $30,000 order at $84,500. He also mentions having long orders set around $70,000 to profit from the anticipated relief rally on the way up.
This bearish outlook is contrasted with broader market analysis from institutional researchers. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, published a study indicating the current Bitcoin market cycle is dramatically weaker than previous ones. Despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of over $125,000 in October 2025, it only managed to surpass its April 2024 halving price of ~$63,000 by about 97%. Thorn notes this peak is "significantly calmer" compared to historic cycles.
Thorn's analysis shows a clear trend of diminishing returns post-halving: the 2012 cycle saw a ~9,294% gain, the 2016 cycle saw ~2,950%, and the 2020 cycle saw ~761%. This decreasing volatility and upside potential suggest traditional four-year halving cycle dynamics are changing. Supporting this view, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright observed that while bull cycles are becoming less frequent, bear markets are also becoming less severe. Previous declines ranged from 80-90%, whereas the latest drop from $125,000 to $60,000 was only about 50%.
