Grayscale Research has identified a key on-chain signal suggesting a durable market bottom for Bitcoin may be forming, as the cryptocurrency's price approaches the breakeven point for recent buyers. According to their analysis, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 20% since its low of around $63,000 on February 5, 2026, bringing it back to the $74,000 zone. This level represents the average realized price for Bitcoin transacted over the last one to three months.
Grayscale emphasizes that this shift is significant because it can alter near-term market dynamics. "When those holders return to breakeven, forced selling tends to cool, while market mood often improves," the firm stated. They believe this pattern, where recent buyers are no longer underwater, reduces sell pressure and flips short-term sentiment, potentially marking the first stage of a new bull cycle.
This positive signal is bolstered by continued institutional demand. Strategy, a public company, purchased 34,164 BTC between April 13 and April 19 for approximately $2.54 billion. This acquisition increased its total holdings to 815,061 BTC, with an aggregate purchase cost of about $61.56 billion and an average price of $75,527 per coin. According to BitcoinTreasuries data, this places Strategy first among public companies by Bitcoin holdings, ahead of Twenty One Capital and Metaplanet.
However, a contrasting technical analysis warns of potential downside risk. Some traders point to a weakening of large buy walls (whale support) below the current price, suggesting market depth has thinned. This could lead to faster price movements. Furthermore, a chart pattern analysis by Crypto Patel highlights a repeated bearish channel formation. The analysis suggests that if Bitcoin breaks below the lower trendline of its current rising channel, it could face a drop of about 30-31%, potentially targeting the $47,400 area. As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading near $75,759.
For now, Grayscale views the $74,000 area as a critical reference point where recent buyers stop acting as distressed sellers, providing the market room to stabilize as Bitcoin attempts to hold gains in the mid-$70,000 range.
