BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has laid out bold price targets for the end of 2026, predicting Bitcoin will reach $500,000 and the Hyperliquid ecosystem token HYPE will hit $200. In an exclusive interview with Coinpedia, Hayes reaffirmed that the majority of his personal wealth remains stored in Bitcoin, which he called his highest conviction bet among the top ten crypto assets.
Bitcoin's Recent Surge
Bitcoin price surged to $78,000 on Wednesday, hitting a new monthly high as strong institutional buying and easing geopolitical tensions boosted investor sentiment. BTC is up 2.5% at $78,029, outperforming a largely flat S&P 500. According to Walter Bloomberg, large Bitcoin holders bought around 45,000 BTC in the past week, with many purchases occurring simultaneously. Long-term investors have also added more than 1 million BTC over the last three months, signaling growing confidence.
Hayes on Ripple and On-Chain Evidence
In a separate part of the interview, Hayes cast doubt on the narrative that XRP is being used at scale as cross-border settlement infrastructure. When asked whether crypto is becoming the backbone of a parallel financial system—given reports of Iran charging Bitcoin tolls on oil tankers and XRP being discussed for settlement—Hayes replied: “When I see on-chain evidence that an institution is using XRP at scale then I will believe Ripple supporters.” He applied the same standard to the Iran Bitcoin toll story, saying he would only believe it when he sees a transaction linked to a vessel's toll payment.
The Broader Context
Jim Rickards, who helped construct the petrodollar system in the 1970s, recently listed Ripple alongside Bitcoin and Tether as plausible currencies for Iran's reported Strait of Hormuz toll collections. The parallel financial system narrative remains one of the most powerful long-term stories in crypto, but Hayes is waiting for the ledger to confirm it.
What Could Affect the Targets
Hayes flagged a single wildcard as the biggest variable that could either accelerate or derail his 2026 targets. Based on his publicly stated macro views, the most likely candidate is a shift in US monetary policy or a significant expansion of global liquidity, both of which he has previously identified as primary drivers of crypto bull markets.
