A detailed on-chain analysis from Coindoo reveals that Bitcoin's adjusted MVRV ratio for long-term holders (LTH MVRV 6M-10Y) is compressing towards 1.0, but remains above this critical threshold. Historical data shows every Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2012 occurred when this metric entered the 0.7-0.85 stress zone. The current reading above 1.0 indicates that long-term holders still hold more unrealized profit than loss, but the compression direction suggests the metric may continue declining.
The article highlights two competing interpretations of the current MVRV reading. One view suggests holders have strong conviction, keeping the metric above 1.0. An alternative explanation holds that the metric remains above 1.0 simply because price has not fallen far enough to push it into stress territory. For MVRV to reach the historical 0.7-0.85 range, Bitcoin would need to approach the LTH realized price near $40,000-$45,000—a 40-50% decline from current levels near $77,700.
Active address data provides additional context. Both receiving and sending addresses peaked on April 21, coinciding with Bitcoin's weekly high near $78,500, and have since moderated. Receiving addresses currently sit at 490,000 (down from a peak of 530,000), while sending addresses are at 445,000 (down from 490,000). Critically, network participation remains higher now than it was in late March when Bitcoin traded between $67,000-$68,000, suggesting the network is not yet experiencing genuine deterioration.
The analysis presents two potential scenarios. In a bullish case, Bitcoin stabilizes or recovers above $78,000-$80,000, the MVRV stops compressing, and the current period is viewed as a mid-cycle correction. In a bearish case, price continues lower toward $70,000, the MVRV approaches 1.0, and active addresses begin declining alongside price—aligning with prior bottoming patterns. The resolution depends on whether active addresses begin tracking price lower in a sustained manner.
