A recent market structure analysis has sparked debate over who truly controls XRP’s price in 2026. According to on-chain estimates from April 2026, retail investors hold approximately 50–55% of the total XRP supply, split between self-custody and exchange wallets. However, the analysis claims that retail investors are not driving price increases; instead, they are the primary reason the price has not fallen further.
The data shows that institutions and ETFs hold just 1–2% of the total supply, while market makers account for 60–70% of daily price movement. The conclusion is that XRP’s price floor is supported by millions of holders who simply refuse to sell, effectively removing a large chunk of supply from the market through inaction rather than active demand. The analysis estimates that retail conviction accounts for roughly 40–60% of XRP’s effective price floor at current levels.
However, not everyone agrees with this interpretation. Bill Morgan, a well-known XRP commentator, countered that Ripple remains the largest single seller of XRP in the market, releasing hundreds of millions of tokens every month from escrow. If supply dynamics were truly driving prices, those sales would create consistent downward pressure—yet they do not. More importantly, Morgan pointed out that XRP’s price largely tracks Bitcoin: when Bitcoin rises, XRP rises; when Bitcoin falls, XRP falls. This pattern holds regardless of Ripple’s selling or retail holding behavior. “The predominant explanatory factor remains Bitcoin price movement,” Morgan wrote.
Regardless of the debate, the current price action confirms a period of stagnation. XRP is trading at $1.42, stuck in a weeks-long range between $1.33 and $1.47. The asset attempted to break above $1.51 but failed, and each subsequent high has been lower, with resistance now at $1.46–$1.47. Support holds near $1.33–$1.35. Market makers and institutional flows still dominate price movement, while retail holding behavior provides a sticky floor. Analysts agree that without a breakout catalyst—such as a surge in ETF inflows or a major partnership—XRP is likely to remain range-bound.
Community narratives, riddles, and signals from figures like David Schwartz have played a role in sustaining attention and holding behavior, but they do not directly move prices. Over time, if belief strengthens, more supply locks, the float tightens, and price becomes more sensitive to inflows. If belief weakens, supply returns to exchanges and the floor erodes.
