On-chain data and technical analysis from popular analyst Ali Martinez suggest that Bitcoin's current price structure is closely mimicking its 2022 bottoming cycle, a pattern that carries both optimistic and cautionary implications for the leading cryptocurrency. The analysis highlights that Bitcoin's price trajectory is following a similar path to that seen during the 2022 bear market, which was characterized by a brutal decline from nearly $70,000 to under $16,000, driven largely by the collapses of Terra and FTX.
Martinez points to specific technical similarities, particularly the potential for another major rejection similar to what occurred when Bitcoin hit $25,000 in August/September 2022 before plunging to its cycle low. According to his chart analysis, if the pattern holds, Bitcoin could see a temporary push higher before a final leg down, potentially dumping below $55,000 after being rejected at the $80,000-$82,000 resistance level. This critical resistance zone is reinforced by substantial sell walls from whales at $79,000-$80,000, a level that has previously stopped Bitcoin's advance on multiple occasions, each retracement pushing the price several thousand dollars lower.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Martinez's data reveals that more than 10,000 BTC—worth approximately $770 million at current prices—have been sent to centralized exchanges by large investors, a move typically seen as a pre-sale step. This influx of Bitcoin to exchanges suggests that whales may be preparing to sell, potentially adding further downward pressure on the price.
Another analyst, Crypto Tony, shares a similarly cautious view, suggesting that Bitcoin's recent minor rebound to $77,600 will likely result in another rejection. However, there is a silver lining: Bitcoin ended April with its most substantial gains since April 2025, surging by 11.87%, according to CoinGlass data.
In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant confirms that Bitcoin's April rally was primarily driven by futures trading activity rather than organic spot market demand. The firm reported that Bitcoin rose about 20% in April, climbing from $66,000 to nearly $79,000, but noted that this increase was fueled by perpetual futures demand while spot demand actually declined. CryptoQuant warns that this divergence between rising prices and falling spot demand is a bearish signal, mirroring conditions seen in early 2022 that preceded a prolonged market decline.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index also dropped from 50 to 40 during April, even as Bitcoin's price increased, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The firm maintains that "history suggests this setup carries meaningful downside risk" and that current conditions point to a possible extended decline in Bitcoin price over the coming months.
However, not all analysts agree on the bearish outlook. Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan points to corporate buying as a key driver of the rally, highlighting that Strategy has been a major factor, along with ETF inflows of $3.8 billion since March 1 and purchases by long-term holders. Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000 with a 2.1% daily increase, while futures demand remains elevated and spot demand stays subdued.
