Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $198.45 on Friday, slipping 0.5% after briefly trading above $200 during the session. Monday premarket had the stock down another 0.2% to $198.16. The $200 level has become a key psychological marker for the stock. Since late 2024, NVDA has only managed to consistently hold that level during two windows: late October through early November 2025, and mid-to-late April 2026. The stock fell below $200 last Thursday and failed to close back above it Friday, raising the question of how long before it can hold that level again.
Three companies closely tied to the chip and AI space — GlobalFoundries, Arista Networks, and Super Micro Computer — are all due to report earnings Tuesday. Positive results from any of them could help rebuild confidence around chip demand. Nvidia's own earnings are scheduled for May 20. Last quarter, the company reported $1.62 EPS, beating estimates of $1.54, on revenue of $68.13 billion — up 73.2% year over year.
Despite the price wobble, institutional investors haven't been stepping back. State Street holds over 978 million NVDA shares valued at roughly $154.5 billion. Geode Capital Management owns about 579 million shares worth over $91 billion. Norges Bank also entered a new position last quarter, valued at approximately $51.4 billion. In total, 65.27% of NVDA stock is held by institutional investors and hedge funds. WorthPointe LLC increased its stake by 43.2% in Q4, bringing its holdings to 8,682 shares worth around $1.6 million. Manning & Napier also boosted its position by roughly 192,878 shares. On the insider side, EVP Ajay K. Puri sold 300,000 shares at $182.25 in March, totaling $54.7 million. CFO Colette Kress sold 20,000 shares at $174.89 in the same month. Insiders have sold roughly $171 million worth of stock over the last quarter.
Wall Street analysts aren't flinching. The consensus price target on NVDA sits at $275.25, with 48 analysts rating the stock a Buy and four giving it a Strong Buy. Only two analysts have it at Hold. Wolfe Research has a $275 target with an Outperform rating. JPMorgan has a $265 target with an Overweight call. Morgan Stanley set a $260 target in early March. Rothschild & Co Redburn raised their target from $245 to $268. Nvidia's market cap sits at $4.82 trillion. The 52-week range runs from $110.82 to $216.82, with current price sitting well below the high. The company's PEG ratio of 0.65 suggests analysts see the valuation as reasonable relative to expected growth.
Jim Cramer Bullish, History Points to More Upside
Jim Cramer remains firmly behind NVIDIA, arguing no AI buildout can happen without NVDA chips, even with rival offerings from Amazon and others. NVDA is up 5% year-to-date and 73% over the past year. The CNBC host made his case this week while commenting on earnings from other major tech firms. His argument was blunt: regardless of what competitors are doing with their own chips, the hyperscalers still need NVIDIA hardware — and they're buying it. “You can't do this without NVIDIA,” Cramer said. “They can have all the Trainiums that they want… NVIDIA is the dominant player, still.” He also pointed to Meta's recent bond deal, suggesting a chunk of that capital will ultimately flow to NVIDIA for AI infrastructure.
Beyond the Cramer commentary, there's a technical case forming around valuation. NVDA currently trades at roughly 25x forward earnings. That's below where it has typically sat. In late 2024, the forward P/E reached 37x. By the end of May 2025, it was at 29x — and that was during a period when revenue growth was actually decelerating. Today, growth is going the other way. Q4 fiscal 2025 came in at 73% year-over-year, and management guided for 77% growth in Q1. When a company is accelerating at that pace, a 25x multiple starts to look like a discount. If the stock were to re-rate to 32x forward earnings — below its prior highs — that would represent close to 30% upside from current levels.
Seasonality is also worth noting. In May 2024, NVDA rose 32%. In May 2025, it climbed 20%. This year, the stock already had a solid April, gaining around 20%. If that pattern holds, the setup heading into May looks familiar. AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate, with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all reaffirming large capex commitments in their recent earnings calls. The stock's 52-week range sits between $110.82 and $216.82, with current price action at $197 putting it closer to the top end of that band.
