On-chain data and market indicators are painting a bullish picture for both Bitcoin and altcoins, according to multiple analysis firms. Bitcoin recently surged past $81,000, reaching a three-month high, and large investors are accumulating while retail traders exit — a pattern historically associated with strong rallies.
Santiment reported that whale wallets holding between 100,000 and 10,000 BTC accumulated a combined 16,622 BTC (approximately 0.12% of supply) this month. Meanwhile, small retail wallets with less than 0.01 BTC sold 28 BTC (around -0.05%). This diverging behavior fits a typical early bull market pattern where smart money accumulates amid retail fear. Santiment emphasized that the strongest crypto rallies have historically occurred when large wallets add coins and smaller wallets reduce exposure.
Simultaneously, CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Darkfost identified early signs of an altcoin season. While Bitcoin’s dominance climbed to over 61.3% — its highest since November 2025 — the total market cap of altcoins excluding Ethereum (TOTAL3) rose by about 15%. Additionally, the 200-day moving average of altcoins listed on Binance increased from 2.3% to 11.7%, and altcoin trading volume relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum jumped from 31% to 49% over the past two months. Darkfost described these as first signals of altcoin capital rotation, though not yet a full-blown altcoin season.
Another analyst, Murphy, highlighted Bitcoin’s transition from bear to bull market. He pointed to the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) indicator crossing above zero, which means realized profits now exceed realized losses. According to Murphy, this move skips an intermediate capitulation phase and suggests Bitcoin is entering a new bullish cycle, echoing a historical three-stage cycle.
