Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $80,000 psychological level during early Asian trading hours on May 4, the first time since February, amid its quiet upward march in recent weeks. Data from CryptoSlate shows the top crypto touched an intraday high of $80,529 before slipping back toward $79,621 as of press time.
The short-term time frame reveals that Bitcoin has broken out of a 3-month long bear flag, although this is only on a 4-hour candle as yet. The price pushed through the top of the bear flag and tagged the $80,600 resistance, before coming back to test and confirm the breakout, and what could now become support at $79,500. However, analysts warn that a hold above the top of the bear flag for the next two to three days is critical for a genuine breakout.
Market analysts noted that BTC traders are currently trying to determine whether recovering institutional spot demand can overpower a still-hostile macroeconomic setting marked by Middle East tensions, hawkish Federal Reserve handover, and a derivatives market that remains heavily skeptical.
Derivatives landscape reveals structural divergence — While call options targeting upside strikes are heavily populated, with data from Deribit showing $1.7 billion in notional value locked into the $80,000 call option alongside massive clusters at $90,000 and $100,000, the underlying sentiment metrics paint a picture of growing unease. Bitcoin's sentiment flipped dramatically in less than a week, with the Fear & Greed index dropping 10 points to a Fear level of 43, according to Alphractal. Yet perpetal futures funding rates remain decidedly positive at +0.51%, indicating that while holder sentiment has cooled, speculative traders are still paying a premium to maintain bullish bets.
ETF demand provides structural floor — Data from SoSoValue shows that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded two consecutive months of net inflows totaling $3.29 billion, the first back-to-back month of inflows since September and October last year. Ecoinometrics noted that demand is starting to stick, with a nine-day streak of net inflows representing the longest stretch of consistent demand seen in this entire bear market.
Macro risks shadow the rebound — The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a live wire, with oil prices elevated well above the $100-per-barrel mark. The Federal Reserve faces pressure to abandon its easing bias entirely, with Barclays shifting its forecast to predict zero rate cuts for the entirety of 2026. An imminent shift in central bank leadership, with Chairman Jerome Powell's term expiring on May 15 and his designated successor Kevin Warsh expected to face a full Senate vote the week of May 11, introduces additional uncertainty for risk asset pricing.
Weekly time frame positives include the BTC price breaking through the bear market trendline, but negatives still control the macro picture. The trend remains down, and the price has been unable to break out of the top of its bear flag on weekly closes. Analysts suggest that a rejection from the top of the bear flag is probably the next move, though this does not necessarily mean a crash will follow.
