Benchmark has lowered its 12-month price target on Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) from $705 to $570, reflecting a more cautious view of Bitcoin’s near-term upside after a severe drawdown in both the cryptocurrency and Strategy’s stock. The investment bank maintains a Buy rating but is trimming its aggressive assumptions as the market reassesses cycle extremes.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds over 818,000 BTC, making it the world’s largest listed Bitcoin treasury. The company’s equity is effectively a leveraged play on Bitcoin, with MSTR historically returning roughly 55% annually since August 2020, compared to Bitcoin’s 38%. However, that leverage cuts both ways: MSTR fell more than 60% from mid-2025 peaks, dropping from about $457 to near $150 in six months, prompting Benchmark’s recalibration.
The bank’s previous $705 target was anchored to an aggressive model that assumed Bitcoin would hit $225,000 by end-2026, using a sum-of-the-parts approach that blended projected BTC holdings, a 10x multiple on “Bitcoin dollar gain,” and the legacy software unit. While Benchmark still sees substantial upside from current levels, the reduced target acknowledges a less euphoric crypto landscape.
The price target cut arrives as Strategy continues to build out its three-tier financial system: Bitcoin as digital capital (direct holdings, no yield), MSTR as digital equity (levered exposure), and its perpetual preferred stock STRC as digital credit (11.5% annual yield, principal near $100). This framework compresses Bitcoin’s ~40 volatility down to roughly 2 for STRC, appealing to retail and income-focused investors. Tokenization of these securities, expected in 2026, could further disrupt the $145 trillion fixed-income market by making them accessible globally via smartphones.
Despite the target reduction, Benchmark’s thesis—that Strategy is a pioneering Bitcoin adoption vehicle rather than a traditional software firm—remains intact. The $570 figure still implies significant upside, but the move signals that even dedicated bulls are adjusting expectations to a cooler Bitcoin trajectory.
