Analysts at Societe Generale have identified a pivotal technical juncture in the EUR/SEK pair, noting that the recent rebound is testing a significant moving average. Simultaneously, the EUR/PLN drifted lower after the National Bank of Poland (NBP) held its key rate steady at 5.75%, reinforcing the zloty’s yield advantage.
EUR/SEK: Rebound confronts key moving average
The recovery in EUR/SEK has brought the pair into contact with a widely followed medium‑term moving average, which now acts as both potential resistance and support. Societe Generale’s technical strategists stress that the test follows a period of pronounced weakness, making the current level a make‑or‑break point for short‑term direction. A sustained break above could signal extended upside for the euro against the krona, while a rejection would likely confirm renewed bearish pressure.
The backdrop of diverging monetary policies adds weight to the setup. The European Central Bank has maintained a cautious stance on rate cuts, whereas the Riksbank has hinted at possible easing to bolster Sweden’s economy. This disparity has historically weighed on the krona, but the latest price action suggests that market sentiment may be starting to shift.
EUR/PLN: Zloty edges higher as NBP stays on hold
In Poland, the zloty strengthened after the NBP kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations. Headline inflation, although down from double‑digit peaks, remains above the central bank’s target, limiting the scope for immediate easing. Societe Generale’s FX strategy team noted that the zloty is benefiting from policy stability compared to some regional peers that have already begun cutting rates.
From a technical perspective, EUR/PLN has been trending lower since mid‑March, breaching support around 4.30 and now testing the 4.27‑4.28 zone—an area that served as resistance in late 2024. A firm break below could target the 4.24 region, a level last seen in early 2022. Conversely, a bounce above 4.32 would suggest the downtrend is losing steam.
For Polish consumers and importers, a stronger zloty helps curb imported inflation, particularly for energy and raw materials priced in dollars or euros. This dynamic may accelerate disinflation and eventually give the NBP more policy flexibility later in the year.
Societe Generale recommends a cautious approach. While the technical bias in EUR/PLN is bearish and the zloty has room to appreciate, any escalation in geopolitical tensions or a shift in global risk appetite could swiftly reverse the trend. The bank advises close monitoring of upcoming eurozone and Swedish economic data, as well as central bank communications, to gauge whether these technical signals translate into sustained moves.
