Ethereum's ETH/BTC pair is threatening a breakdown that could send it to levels not seen since 2020, with analysts and exchange data pointing to a potential 40% further decline. The second-largest cryptocurrency has already lost over 35% against Bitcoin in the past twelve months, and technical indicators suggest the downtrend is far from over.
ETH/BTC has been trading inside a descending channel that began in 2022, with each attempt to clear the upper resistance rejected. The latest test in August 2025 met fierce selling near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average, pushing the pair below its 20-month EMA at 0.034 BTC. “That breakdown keeps sellers in full control,” analysts note, setting sights on the 0.0176 BTC region — the cycle bottom from 2020 and roughly 40% below current prices.
On-chain metrics amplify the bearish narrative. CryptoQuant data reveals that Binance alone held 3.62 million ETH in May, representing 24.6% of all Ether sitting on exchanges — a rising reserve trend that often foreshadows higher sell-side pressure. This was compounded by three massive deposits: 216,152 ETH ($511 million) on May 6, 98,552 ETH ($224 million) on May 8, and 125,146 ETH ($288 million) on May 9. Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange balances are shrinking, signaling accumulation and tightening supply for BTC, which only widens the relative underperformance gap.
For the first time in its history, Ether could post three consecutive red quarters. Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 already closed negative, and Q2 is currently clinging to an 11% gain — a streak that never before occurred in Ethereum's lifecycle. The dollar chart offers little solace: ETH is trading near $2,323, below the 200-day moving average, with support at $2,320. A break lower targets $2,250 and $2,150, while a reclaim of $2,387 would open the door to $2,500 and $2,660.
Yet not everyone is convinced the outlook is solely bearish. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, now holding over 5.2 million ETH (4.3% of circulating supply), continues to accumulate, with its chairman Tom Lee calling for year-end ETH prices between $9,000 and $12,000. Lee cites tokenization and agentic AI as major demand drivers, and if ETH closes May above $2,100, it would mark the third straight monthly gain — a signal he interprets as the arrival of “crypto spring.” Flows into crypto ETFs also showed resilience, with Ether ETFs attracting $70 million in the latest week alongside $622 million for Bitcoin ETFs. Even the Ethereum Foundation’s recent $49.6 million unstaking is seen as routine funding outflows rather than a dump signal.
The tug-of-war between bearish technicals and ongoing institutional demand defines the current juncture. For ETH bulls, avoiding a fresh leg down to 0.0176 BTC will require a swift reversal on the ETH/BTC chart and a meaningful decline in exchange reserves.
