Research and brokerage firm Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating and price targets for both Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) on Tuesday, citing strong first-quarter 2026 performances despite a challenging macro backdrop. For Figure, the firm maintained a $67 target – a 72% upside from the stock’s $38.97 price – after loan volumes more than doubled year-over-year. Circle’s price target was kept at $190, implying 44% upside from $131.76, with a $222 million ARC token presale providing a cushion against declining interest income.
Figure’s tokenization momentum
Figure reported $2.9 billion in Q1 loan volume, a 113% jump, alongside adjusted net revenue of $167 million, beating consensus by 6%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $82.7 million – roughly a 50% margin – slightly above the $80 million estimate. The standout metric was Figure Connect, the company’s blockchain-based credit origination marketplace, which accounted for 56% of total loan volumes (up from 54%) as the partner network expanded to 387 institutions, including Flagstar Bank. Despite a shift toward lower-margin first-lien loans, Figure’s net take-rate remained flat at 3.8%, demonstrating operating leverage. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the results force investors to re-evaluate the stock, describing Figure as a “blockchain capital markets platform” with zero crypto beta. The firm values FIGR at 25x estimated 2027 EBITDA, a premium reflecting its structural growth thesis.
Circle’s USDC resilience and ARC catalyst
For Circle, Q1 revenue of $694 million missed estimates by about 4% as reserve income fell 11% quarter-on-quarter due to lower interest rates. However, adjusted EBITDA of $151 million topped consensus by 10%, and USDC supply reached $77 billion, up 28% year-over-year. On-platform balances grew to $13.7 billion, or 18% of total supply, even as the broader crypto market shed 40% since October 2025. The upcoming ARC token presale – conducted at a $3 billion fully diluted network value – raised $222 million, which will be recognized as other revenue upon token delivery. Bernstein highlighted that the ARC Layer 1 blockchain processed over 244 million testnet transactions and is positioned to capture machine-to-machine micropayments via the x402 standard. Circle’s payments network annualized volume is approaching $10 billion, and partnerships with Meta, DoorDash, and Kyriba continue to scale.
Both notes emphasize that tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure are driving durable revenue streams independent of crypto market swings, with Bernstein projecting continued growth throughout 2026.
