The cryptocurrency market continues its sluggish start to the week, with Bitcoin hovering around $80,700 and Ether slipping below $2,300 after a 2% decline. Within this environment, Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE is under increasing pressure, trading down 1.5% at $41 and breaking below its recent rising trendline support.
Derivatives data reinforces the bearish narrative. According to CoinGlass, the OI-Weighted Funding Rate has flipped negative to -0.0008%, indicating that shorts are paying longs—a clear signal of bearish sentiment. The long-to-short ratio has dropped to 0.81, its lowest level in over a month, meaning more traders are betting on the price to fall. However, CryptoQuant’s summary metrics paint a slightly different picture: spot and futures markets show cooling conditions with buy-side dominance, hinting at a potential recovery.
Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart add to the caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43, below the neutral mark, and the MACD registered a bearish crossover on Monday. If the daily candle closes below the trendline, sellers could push HYPE toward the 50-day EMA at $40.30, with further downside to the 100-day EMA at $37.87 and the 200-day EMA at $36.05. On the upside, a bullish reversal would need to reclaim the April 16 high of $45.76. Broader geopolitical factors, such as US-Iran talks, could also swing the market.
Looking beyond the short term, Hyperliquid’s fundamentals offer a bright spot. The decentralized exchange has maintained daily volumes often exceeding $1 billion, and its upcoming Layer 1 blockchain, HyperEVM, is seen as a major catalyst. If the platform captures 5–10% of the estimated $100 billion daily perpetual futures market, HYPE’s market cap could theoretically reach $20–40 billion, suggesting a price range of $65 to $130 by 2028–2030, assuming a circulating supply of 300 million tokens. A new all-time high above $50 remains contingent on sustained adoption and favorable regulatory clarity, but risks like smart contract vulnerabilities and competition from dYdX and GMX persist.
