A growing chorus of analysts is challenging the traditional narrative of Bitcoin’s market cycles, pointing to an unprecedented wave of institutional and corporate demand that has fundamentally altered the asset’s price structure. Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst, has cast doubt on the widely held “October bottom” theory, calling it the “most overextended view” currently in the market.
In a post on X, van de Poppe argued that when a market expectation becomes too widely shared, its likelihood of materializing diminishes. He emphasized that Bitcoin is forming a “very strong” base and that the broader market environment today differs significantly from the 2022 bear market. “I don’t see a repeat of the same outcome as in the past,” he stated, challenging the notion that historical patterns will simply repeat.
Supporting his outlook, van de Poppe highlighted the Nasdaq composite index hitting an all-time high, which historically correlates with risk-on sentiment in crypto. He also pointed to the upcoming vote on the CLARITY Act, legislation that could provide U.S. regulatory clarity for digital assets, and the potential announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the White House. The ongoing discussion around appointing the next Federal Reserve Chair, he noted, carries significant implications for monetary policy and liquidity.
Pierre Rochard, vice president at the Bitcoin Bond Company, reinforced this view with concrete data. His analysis shows that Bitcoin’s current correction is notably shallower than the 77% to 85% drawdowns witnessed in the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. Rochard attributes this resilience to sustained institutional demand, headlined by cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have now surpassed $59 billion.
This relentless stream of capital, combined with ongoing accumulation by publicly traded firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has changed the supply-demand balance. Large, long-term holders and ETF custodians are less likely to panic sell during downturns, creating a more stable price floor. While volatility remains, the structural shift suggests that the extreme drawdowns of past cycles may become less frequent, provided institutional adoption continues.
“The presence of these institutional ‘whales’ has created a new support base for Bitcoin,” Rochard explained. “This doesn’t eliminate volatility, but the severity of corrections is materially reduced.” For investors, this maturation process signals that the traditional playbook for timing Bitcoin cycles may need updating.
