Wall Street is sharpening its focus on the commercial space sector, with two companies drawing opposite reactions from analysts: Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile.
New Street Research launched coverage on 10 space stocks this week, issuing Buy ratings to Rocket Lab, Viasat, EchoStar, and UAE-based Space42. The firm called space “the next frontier” and expects trillions in economic growth over two decades. Rocket Lab, in particular, is highlighted as the only Western alternative to SpaceX in the launch market. Its shares have surged 415% over the past year, and about 80% of covering analysts rate it a Buy. New Street set a $150 price target, above the average $105 target. The company is projected to turn profitable by 2028.
Rocket Lab’s Q1 2026 results reinforce the optimism. Revenue hit a record $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 38.2%. The backlog grew to $2.2 billion, and total liquidity exceeds $2 billion. The company is evolving beyond rockets into spacecraft systems, defense, and satellites, giving it multiple growth avenues.
In contrast, AST SpaceMobile is seen as a high-risk, high-reward play. The company aims to connect standard smartphones directly to satellites without extra hardware. It reported just $14.74 million in Q1 2026 revenue, missing expectations, with a loss of $0.66 per share. However, it locked in over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments in 2025 and holds about $3.5 billion in cash. Analysts remain cautious: the consensus rating for AST SpaceMobile is Reduce, while Rocket Lab enjoys a Moderate Buy.
The broader space economy is gaining traction ahead of SpaceX’s planned mid-2026 IPO, which could value Elon Musk’s company at up to $2 trillion. Morgan Stanley estimates the space economy could reach $1 trillion by 2040. Falling launch costs—SpaceX’s Starship may cut orbital costs by another 90% from Falcon 9—are a key driver.
New Street’s other picks: Viasat and Space42 are prized for spectrum assets, and EchoStar holds a stake in SpaceX. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile, SES, and Iridium got Hold ratings, while Eutelsat, Planet Labs, and Telesat were rated Sell. Lockheed Martin and L3Harris remain major players in defense space.
