On-chain data from CryptoQuant signals a notable shift in Bitcoin investor behavior, as long-term holder (LTH) supply has recovered to 15.26 million BTC, a level last seen in August 2025. Analyst Darkfost highlighted that this marks a sharp reversal from the distribution phase that dominated late 2025. Over the past 30 days, approximately 316,000 BTC aged into the LTH category—coins held for at least six months, typically associated with reduced sell pressure.
This accumulation stands in contrast to late November 2025, when a negative 30-day change of roughly 650,000 BTC reflected heavy distribution. Darkfost also noted that around 800,000 BTC previously moved from Coinbase will cross the six-month threshold on May 23, potentially reclassifying a substantial amount of supply into long-term hands. Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to Bitcoin’s 25% rebound from recent lows as a sign of resilience, citing a depressed BTC/gold RSI that historically preceded strong Bitcoin phases. He argued that losing the 21-day moving average does not guarantee a collapse to new lows, with the 200-week moving average serving as a critical floor barring extreme shocks.
However, analyst Ali offered a cautionary note: trader realized profit margins reached 17%, echoing conditions prior to the 2022 downturn. Bitcoin traded near the $78,000–$78,500 support zone on May 16–17, with exchange outflows exceeding $90 million at times, while resistance sits around $80,000–$81,000. The mixed signals highlight an accumulation trend colliding with profit-taking pressure.
