Bitcoin tumbled to a three-week low over the weekend, dropping below the $77,000 threshold, as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields triggered the largest weekly outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs since late January and drove more than $670 million in liquidations across crypto markets.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.63% on Sunday night, its highest level since February 2025, up 70 basis points since the Iran War began, according to financial commentators. The surge in yields led to a sharp decline in risk appetite, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $1 billion in net outflows for the week ending May 15—compared to $622.75 million in net inflows the prior week—per SoSoValue data. This marks the most severe weekly exit since the final week of January, when $1.49 billion fled the funds.
Total crypto market liquidations exceeded $672 million, according to CoinGlass, as Bitcoin traded around $76,770. The sell-off unfolded despite a positive regulatory development: the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee, offering the industry its clearest path yet to a comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework. However, macro forces overwhelmed the regulatory tailwind, with three key risks in focus.
First, volatility in U.S. Treasuries, as measured by the ICE BofA MOVE index, jumped 14.7% to 79.87 on Friday—the highest since April 7. As Treasury notes underpin global finance and serve as primary collateral, sharp swings discourage risk-taking and trigger broad asset sales. Second, the yen weakened past 159 per dollar, nearing the 160 level that historically triggers Bank of Japan intervention. QCP Capital warned that an intervention could force an unwind of crowded yen-carry trades, draining a key source of global liquidity supportive of risk assets. Third, oil prices remain firmly above $100, with the International Energy Agency’s head warning that commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly due to the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A further price rally would stoke inflation and tighten financial conditions.
Analysts emphasized the critical importance of the $77,000 support level. Diego Martin, CEO of Yellow Capital, noted, “If $77,000 breaks while perpetual swap open interest remains elevated, the deleveraging math gets uncomfortable quickly and a retest of $70,000 or below becomes a real scenario.” Georgii Verbitski, founder of TYMIO, added that Bitcoin’s near-term recovery depends on the AI-driven equity rally sustaining momentum; should it reverse, Bitcoin could face a sharper downside because the market currently lacks a strong standalone demand driver. On prediction market Myriad, the probability of Bitcoin’s next move rallying to $84,000 dropped from 89% to 74%.
