A cluster of nine interconnected Polymarket accounts has drawn intense scrutiny after netting approximately $2.4 million by accurately betting on U.S. military actions tied to the Iran conflict. The accounts achieved an extraordinary 98% win rate, according to an investigation by on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
All accounts were created just days before the U.S. began airstrikes on Iran in late February. They flawlessly predicted the timing of multiple strikes, the ousting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a temporary ceasefire. The wallets lost money only in a handful of trivial bets, which Bubblemaps suspects were placed intentionally to obscure coordination.
Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, noted that the only hint of a U.S. connection is one account’s username, “whopperlover.” The winnings were eventually moved to centralized exchanges such as Bybit, Binance, and HTX, often via third-party services. Polymarket has not commented publicly.
The discovery follows the recent arrest of U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly used classified intelligence to profit from bets on the Venezuela conflict. This pattern has reignited debate over insider trading in prediction markets, with some lawmakers pushing for new restrictions. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously settled with Polymarket over illegal binary options and may now intensify oversight. While some argue insider trading makes markets more accurate, the incident underscores the regulatory black hole that crypto-based prediction platforms currently inhabit.
