The CLARITY Act is moving closer to a full Senate vote, with Galaxy Research boosting its 2026 passage probability to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14. Senator Cynthia Lummis said a June floor vote is “probably pretty optimistic,” pointing to August as the realistic target. “Nobody is popping the champagne quite yet. There’s still a lot of work to do,” she cautioned.
Before the bill reaches the floor, it must be merged with a Senate Agriculture Committee version differing on CFTC jurisdiction. Once reconciled, the combined text needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster. The key sticking point remains an ethics provision that would bar elected officials from participating in crypto markets. Cody Carbone of the Digital Chamber said a deal on the provision would likely be completed before the bill goes to the floor, as lawmakers need confidence they have the necessary votes.
Market implications: White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said CLARITY Act passage would deliver roughly 90% of what the crypto industry needs from Congress. Standard Chartered analysts estimate the regulatory clarity could unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows alone, directly benefiting the XRP token. Meanwhile, the broader institutional appetite is expected to surge: Ethereum is seen as a prime beneficiary for on-chain tokenization, with institutions like BitMine holding over 4.7 million ETH; Solana is attracting institutional momentum, with JPMorgan disclosing $1.5 million exposure to Bitwise’s Solana staking ETF. Analysts view the Act as a historic moment comparable to the U.S. Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934, potentially opening the door for massive Wall Street capital inflows into tokenized finance.
