Polymarket is preparing a major push into Japan’s prediction market sector, targeting official regulatory approval by 2030. The platform, which currently blocks Japanese users due to local gambling and compliance rules, has appointed a representative in the country and will begin talks with regulators to gain legal access to what it sees as one of its biggest future markets.
According to Bloomberg, Mike Eidlin – previously head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter – is leading the expansion effort. Polymarket views Japan as a largely untapped opportunity, as prediction markets are not widely available there. However, the company faces significant legal hurdles: Japanese law imposes strict penalties on unauthorized betting, with habitual gambling potentially carrying prison terms. Only government‑approved horse racing, public lotteries, and pachinko parlors (through legal gray zones) are exempt.
The move comes as global scrutiny intensifies. India recently blocked Polymarket under online betting laws; Argentina, Colombia, and Romania have imposed similar restrictions; and Minnesota became the first U.S. state to ban prediction markets. Even as it navigates these headwinds, Polymarket is expanding its institutional footprint. Earlier this month, it partnered with Nasdaq Private Market to launch prediction contracts for private‑company valuations, IPO timelines, and secondary‑market pricing, with Nasdaq serving as the resolution data provider. It also struck a deal with Dow Jones to feed real‑time prediction market data into The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch.
Polymarket is reportedly exploring a fresh funding round that could value the company at around $15 billion and has re‑entered the U.S. through its acquisition of federally regulated derivatives exchange QCEX, while continuing discussions with the CFTC. In Japan, the company is taking a long‑term approach, seeking full authorization under the country’s financial infrastructure framework rather than a quick fix.
