Bitcoin’s supply held at an unrealized loss has swelled to 7.75 million coins, a level typical of a bear market, raising concerns about a potential capitulation event. As of May 2025, BTC trades just above $77,000, leaving a significant portion of the supply underwater. The exact number of coins at a loss ranges between 7.64M and 7.75M, depending on metrics. According to CoinGlass, this overhang poses a direct danger of capitulation if other factors do not boost prices.
Data from BGeometrics shows only around 53% of the BTC supply is held with unrealized gains. In 2026, a notable rollover of ownership occurred: strategic whales accumulated at new price levels while old whales with low cost bases sold. ETF holders have been among the first to shed BTC, and treasury companies remain largely inactive. Whales are now accumulating below $78,000 and distributing above this level, benefiting from the sideways market and low volatility—just 1% in the past month—which can still trigger liquidations.
Wallet behavior across cohorts reveals that shrimp wallets (under 1 BTC) experienced mass capitulation, with over 42,000 emptied. Meanwhile, larger whale wallets shed 8.5% of their holdings over 12 months, and smaller whales decreased by 3.72%. In contrast, shark wallets (10–100 BTC) have largely held steady. The average cost basis now sits at $77,253, meaning many holders face only a small unrealized loss. While panic-selling remains unlikely for most cohorts, any strategic distribution by whales could prevent a short-term rally. The overhang is thus a latent risk rather than an immediate trigger.
