Bitcoin's price suffered a sharp rejection at the 0.5 Fibonacci level of $75,574, accelerating a decline that saw it lose the critical bear market resistance band on the daily chart. By May 28, BTC traded at $73,396, down 1.24%, while the Parabolic SAR indicator remained overhead at $78,015, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily chart now exposes the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $71,898 as the next major support.
The sell-off was exacerbated by massive outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on May 27, which bled $733.43 million. BlackRock's IBIT led the exodus with a record $527.84 million outflow in a single day. This marks a continued weakening of spot demand, which had already turned negative over the preceding two weeks, leaving the $74,000 floor vulnerable after a shallow weekend bounce.
On-chain data adds further pressure. Glassnode reveals that the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, reflecting the average entry of coins moved in the last 155 days, sits at approximately $78,000. Converging almost exactly at that level is the True Market Mean, currently near $78,300—a metric that has historically separated bull and bear market regimes. With BTC now stalled below this dual resistance, the average recent buyer is underwater, potentially triggering cascading sell pressure if demand fails to return.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen flagged June as a historically weak month in midterm years, suggesting a Q4 low could mark the cycle bottom. Meanwhile, Glassnode's Realized Profit/Loss Ratio of 1.56, while indicating net positive capital flow since the $60,000 floor, remains well below the 2–5 range typical of early-stage bull markets. The convergence of these technical and on-chain headwinds paints a cautious picture for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.
