Bitcoin continues to lag while the Nasdaq prints fresh highs, creating a stark divergence between crypto and equity markets. Since mid-month, Bitcoin has shed about 12% of its value, while the tech-heavy index has climbed steadily. On the daily chart, BTC traded near $73,191, slipping below the critical Fibonacci level at $75,712. This gap has prompted analysts to question whether Bitcoin will stage a recovery or if equities will eventually correct downward.
Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the disparity, noting that the two markets have moved in opposite directions since the middle of the month. "Bitcoin gets beaten down, while the Nasdaq goes up," he wrote, adding that the Nasdaq's new highs contrast sharply with Bitcoin's decline. He suggested that one of the two markets may soon have to catch up, and he leans toward a Bitcoin rebound.
Traders are now weighing two scenarios. In one, the Nasdaq weakens and follows Bitcoin lower, reminiscent of February when Bitcoin started falling before broader risk assets. In the other, Bitcoin regains ground in the coming weeks, possibly supported by month-end rebalancing or profit-taking. Van de Poppe indicated his preference for the latter scenario, though he acknowledged that markets remain shaky.
Technical analysis paints a cautious picture. Bitcoin rests below the $75,712–$76,000 resistance zone. A daily close above that hurdle could improve the short-term outlook and open a path toward $86,183, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Further resistance stands at $93,538, $100,893, and $109,993. On the downside, support lies near $62,373–$65,000; a breakdown below that band would damage the broader retracement structure.
Momentum indicators confirm the weak buying pressure. The MACD line remains below the signal line with a negative histogram, and the RSI hovers at 34.83, while its moving average is around 43.70. This configuration suggests that bears hold the advantage, though the market is not deeply oversold. For now, Bitcoin must reclaim $75,712 to shift the narrative—until then, short-term pressure persists.
