Bitcoin’s hope of reclaiming the $100,000 level this year is dimming, according to multiple analysts who see bearish technical and on-chain patterns persisting into 2027.
Technical trap: Crypto analyst Alex Mason argues that Bitcoin’s price is trapped in an ascending channel that has formed since the February low above $60,000. While the pattern superficially appears bullish with higher highs and higher lows, Mason warns it is a distribution structure where each push upward loses momentum. The key test came in early May when Bitcoin filled the $82,000 CME gap but was rejected multiple times between May 6 and 11 – a textbook trap before a potential leg down. If the green support line breaks, the next targets are $70,000, then new lows toward $60,000, and a dotted projection suggests a drop to as low as $50,000 by early July. The current chart shows Bitcoin sliding back into the lower half of the channel, putting that support under pressure.
On-chain cascade: A separate update from CryptoQuant reinforces the bearish picture. Founder Ki Young Ju highlights a profit-taking cascade that began in October 2025, with monthly PnL indicators still negative. Historically, such cascades last about 18 months, meaning the cycle low could arrive around April 2027. The market is still in a phase where realized profits keep falling while unrealized profits remain elevated – a combination that stifles sustained recoveries. Any price bounce faces heavy overhead resistance, and a V-shaped reversal is unlikely.
Prediction market Kalshi now assigns only a 32% probability that Bitcoin will break above $100,000 before January 2027. Adding to the uncertainty, Washington’s banking lobby is attempting to block a sweeping crypto bill, which could further dampen institutional appetite. Until the profit equation shifts and selling exhaustion emerges, the structural bear case remains intact.
