Bitcoin's price decline to $72,900 has not only pushed the current correction to its longest duration of the cycle but also trapped a significant portion of recent buyers in immediate losses. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that the total supply held at a loss surged to 8.33 million BTC, up from 7.75 million when the price was at $76,600. The gap implies that roughly 580,000 BTC was accumulated in the $72,900–$76,600 window, leaving this entire cohort underwater as the price slipped below the lower bound.
The formation of such a large underwater cluster threatens to act as a mechanical drag on any recovery. Historically, holders who bought near local peaks tend to sell into bounces toward their cost basis, creating stubborn overhead resistance. Glassnode noted that these participants now face a reassessment of their positions, a scenario that in previous cycles resolved either through volume-driven capitulation or an extended sideways grind that exhausts weaker hands.
Compounding the on-chain pressure, analyst Darkfost observed that Bitcoin's correction has surpassed the 237-day pullback recorded in 2024, marking the longest of the current cycle—though still shorter than recoveries from past bear markets. He highlighted that the next halving is roughly 670 days away, expected around April 2028. Meanwhile, analyst Doctor Profit maintains a bearish stance with short positions opened between $115,000 and $125,000, an additional short averaging $80,500, and unfilled orders in the $83,000–$85,000 range. His previously held $71,000 long was closed for profit last week.
Doctor Profit’s model places Bitcoin in Stage 4 of a six-stage bear market, with Stage 5 triggered if the price breaks below $60,000 and a projected bottom between $40,000 and $50,000. Traders are also eyeing upcoming US economic data—ISM Manufacturing PMI on June 2, ADP Employment on June 4, and Nonfarm Payrolls on June 6—for signals on Federal Reserve policy. Weaker jobs figures with persistent inflation could complicate the Fed’s path and further dampen risk appetite.
Regulatory uncertainty adds to the cautious backdrop, as efforts to reshape a major US crypto bill just days before a Senate vote feed into a broader risk-off mood. With sidelined institutional capital unlikely to absorb the supply overhang, the coming weeks may determine whether the underwater cohort capitulates in a quick flush or lingers as a ceiling on Bitcoin’s price.
