XRP continues to face significant downside pressure, hovering near the $1.30 mark after failing to hold above the $1.48–$1.50 resistance zone. The daily chart paints a clear bearish picture, with the asset logging consecutive lower highs and lower lows since its local peak in May. It now trades below critical exponential moving averages, including the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signaling weak short-term momentum.
Derivatives data underscores the lack of conviction: open interest has slid to roughly $2.96 billion, pointing to reduced speculative activity. Spot markets are equally fragile, as evidenced by persistent outflows—$21.3 million in a single stretch—indicating that traders are moving funds off exchanges rather than deploying fresh capital.
Despite the grim technical setup, a prominent market analyst known as Cheeky Crypto has stirred debate with a bold forecast. Based on a macro broadening wedge pattern and a geometric structure coiling on long-term charts, he assigns a 53% mathematical probability of an explosive breakout toward the $11 price level. The counter scenario—a 47% chance of a catastrophic breakdown—keeps the outlook sharply bifurcated. The analysis emphasizes hidden algorithmic accumulation, institutional order book dynamics, on-chain trends, and critically low exchange reserves as catalysts that could fuel a surge.
Supporting the bullish narrative, on-chain data from Santiment reveals that after the largest single-day exchange inflow since early 2026—over 22.80 million XRP on Thursday—an even larger withdrawal of 25.24 million XRP followed by Saturday. This swift shift to private custody suggests investors are accumulating rather than preparing to sell, especially since the massive inflow occurred near a 15-week price bottom. Since that capitulation event, XRP has rebounded by a modest 5%, feeding hopes that the macro pattern could eventually resolve to the upside.
