Bitcoin’s extended sideways-to-downward trend is fueling a growing conviction among traders that the selloff has further to run. Data from prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket now shows a majority of bettors wagering on a deeper correction, even as the leading cryptocurrency briefly touched the $65,000 level this week.
On Kalshi, traders assign a 66% probability that Bitcoin will breach the $55,000 mark before the end of the year, and a 50% chance it falls below $50,000. The platform even prices a 31% likelihood of a sub-$40,000 price. Polymarket mirrors this sentiment, with roughly a 67% chance of a drop below $55,000 and better-than-even odds for a move under $50,000. Notably, Polymarket traders give Bitcoin only a 30% probability of outperforming gold in 2026, contrasting with gold’s 33% one-year gain versus Bitcoin’s 37% decline.
The bearish positioning coincides with a dramatic exodus from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSo Value, investors pulled $2.4 billion from these funds in May alone, followed by an additional $1 billion in just the first two trading days of June, marking record-breaking outflows.
Analysts point to a broader rotation in investor attention. K33 Research argues that Bitcoin is losing the battle for mindshare against artificial intelligence stocks, noting, “Much of the market views the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while anything AI-related soars.” While the firm maintains a long-term bullish view relative to equities, immediate sentiment remains risk-averse.
Not all capital is leaving the crypto ecosystem; rather, it is flowing into digital dollars. As Bitcoin slid toward $66,000, both USDT and USDC gained market share, indicating that traders are raising cash and waiting on the sidelines rather than aggressively buying the dip.
