Bitcoin’s latest attempt to reclaim higher ground has hit a critical juncture after the price dipped back below the $66,000 horizontal support. While some technical indicators point to a healthy retest before the rally resumes, a growing number of analysts are warning that the bounce could end in a sharp reversal, reminiscent of the 2022 bear market trap.
The short-term chart suggests the pullback may be little more than a retest of the breakout level, with an ascending trendline still intact and the Stochastic RSI poised to turn higher. A bounce from here would keep the rally alive, but daily and weekly time frames paint a more cautious picture. Bitcoin has yet to print a higher high, and the RSI has been rejected from the top of an ascending wedge formation—a pattern that often precedes a downturn. A weekly close above $66,000 is seen as crucial for bullish momentum.
Adding to the unease, analyst “BATMAN” compared the current structure to the September 2022 pump that preceded the FTX‑driven collapse below $16,000. “Side by side, this level looks concerning. It mirrors a similar bullish pump from 2022 that led to nothing afterward,” they noted. Another trader, Kabuki, called the setup a classic bull trap, forecasting a potential drop to $47,000 before a major uptrend takes BTC above $200,000 early next year.
On the other side, Bitfinex analysts identified a $67,900–$68,300 reaction zone where the short-term holder realized price aligns with the second‑quarter opening level. A decisive move above or below this range could dictate the next directional shift.
Meanwhile, a wave of institutional buying is providing a counter‑narrative. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows—the longest streak since April—according to SoSoValue. This resurgence has prompted heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity to accumulate more Bitcoin to back their fund shares, a stark contrast to the $1.8 billion weekly outflow seen at the end of June.
The clash between cautious technicals and renewed institutional demand leaves Bitcoin at an inflection point, with traders closely monitoring whether the $66K level can hold or if the market is on the verge of a deeper correction.
