Commerzbank has cut its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,800 per ounce from $5,000, while maintaining its 2027 target of $5,200, as volatile oil markets and shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations undermine the metal’s traditional safe-haven role. Gold has slumped to two-month lows near $4,440, an unusual move during geopolitical turmoil.
The Iran conflict has triggered an effective suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, choking off more than 12% of global oil supply. Rising crude prices are now fueling inflation fears and altering the interest rate outlook. Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch stressed the correlation coefficient between gold and oil has swung from +0.5 before the conflict to -0.6 today, a strongly negative relationship that is “unusually high.”
Markets now price in a potential 25-basis-point rate hike by spring 2027, a dramatic reversal from earlier expectations of 50 basis points in cuts this year. Commerzbank’s own economists no longer foresee any rate cut in 2026, pushing the first reduction to mid‑2027. This policy shift directly prompted the lowered gold target, as higher rates make non‑yielding assets less appealing.
Fresh military strikes by Iranian forces on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain have further dimmed hopes for a quick peace deal, propelling the U.S. dollar and oil higher. Traders remain cautious ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, with XS.com’s Simon‑Peter Massabni noting that gold will likely stay in a consolidative pattern without clear data signals.
Despite the near-term headwinds, Commerzbank’s 2027 forecast stays at $5,200, backed by structural drivers: eroding dollar confidence, sustained central bank buying, and soaring government debt that keeps monetary policy too loose relative to inflation.
