Copper prices have retreated below the $14,000 per tonne mark on the London Metal Exchange, with the three-month contract last trading at $13,731.58, down 0.5%. The decline comes amid escalating macroeconomic concerns and renewed uncertainty over potential US import tariffs on refined copper. Base metals, including aluminum, have extended their retreat this week, pressured by ongoing Middle East tensions and a pullback in technology stocks.
Analysts point to a complex trading environment where structural demand drivers, such as electrification and renewable energy expansion, are colliding with near-term headwinds. Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Economics, highlighted mixed signals: “Despite ongoing supply risks, concerns over weaker global growth, higher energy costs and inflation weighed on sentiment. The move also reflects profit-taking after the recent rally, driven by expectations of tighter supply ahead of potential US import tariffs.”
Market nervousness is building ahead of a critical decision by the US Department of Commerce on whether to extend import tariffs to refined copper. Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank AG, noted, “Nervousness in the copper market is on the rise again. The US Commerce Secretary is expected to decide at the end of this month on extending US import tariffs to refined copper.” The previous speculation on tariffs had triggered pre-emptive inventory building in the US, tightening supply elsewhere, and the new proposal could gradually impose duties from 2027. Inventories on COMEX are already rising, while LME stocks are declining—a divergence likely to intensify, potentially leading to strong price swings in the second half of 2026.
Beyond tariffs, geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and higher energy costs are adding to inflationary pressures, which may delay monetary easing. Slower-than-expected growth data from key manufacturing regions has also prompted traders to reassess near-term demand. Despite the bearish near-term signals, ING maintains that long-term fundamentals remain constructive, supported by tariff-driven trade distortions and structural demand from green technologies and AI infrastructure. The metal’s medium-term outlook remains broadly positive, but the immediate path depends critically on the tariff decision and Middle East stability.
