Two major forex pairs, GBP/JPY and AUD/USD, are exhibiting robust bullish signals, driven by technical breakouts and diverging central bank policies. These developments, while traditional in nature, may offer a supportive backdrop for risk assets – including cryptocurrencies – as traders assess the broader macro landscape.
GBP/JPY: Long-term averages anchor the uptrend
The GBP/JPY cross remains structurally bullish, with price firmly above the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The pair has repeatedly bounced off the 200-day SMA since mid-2024, turning it into a reliable dynamic support. A golden cross pattern reinforces the buying bias. Immediate support sits near the 100-day SMA at 185.00, with the next floor at 182.50. A decisive push above the psychological 190.00 handle could target 192.00, while a breakdown below 185.00 might trigger a retest of the 200-day SMA. The Bank of England’s hawkish stance, keeping rates elevated to tame inflation, contrasts with the Bank of Japan’s cautious normalization, fueling the interest rate differential that underpins GBP/JPY gains.
AUD/USD: Breaking above the nine-day EMA eyes 0.7200
The Australian dollar has reclaimed the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a short-term bullish reversal. The pair now confronts the 0.7180–0.7200 resistance zone – a region that has capped multiple advances. A successful close above 0.7200 would be a significant technical event, opening the path to the 200-day EMA near 0.7250. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58 supports the upside without being overbought. A softer US dollar, as markets price in further Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates at 4.35% are key fundamental drivers. Upcoming US CPI data and Australian employment figures will be crucial catalysts for the next leg.
Crypto market implications
While neither forex pair directly impacts crypto prices, the prevailing risk-on sentiment they reflect could trickle into the digital asset space. A weaker US dollar and higher-yielding currencies often correlate with increased investor appetite for speculative assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. If global equity markets continue to rally and central bank divergence persists, crypto markets may find additional tailwinds. However, any sudden shift in risk appetite – triggered by an unexpected BoJ rate hike or geopolitical shock – could swiftly reverse the dynamic. For now, the technical and fundamental setups in GBP/JPY and AUD/USD suggest a cautiously optimistic environment for risk exposure.
