JPMorgan reversed its long-held bearish view on Tesla (TSLA) on Friday, upgrading the stock from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Overweight’ and more than tripling its price target from $145 to $475. The move came from new analyst Rajat Gupta, who argued the market still misunderstands Tesla’s unmatched vertical integration and its pole position in physical AI.
Gupta’s thesis reframes Tesla not as a struggling EV maker but as the foundational layer for an entirely new generation of machines that move, sense, and act in the real world. He projected Tesla could reach $203 billion in revenue by 2030, with roughly half coming from robotaxi services, Optimus robot sales, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) licensing. Earnings per share are modeled at $7.50 by that date, though free cash flow is not expected to turn positive until 2029.
The analyst described a “flywheel effect” comparable to Amazon’s Kiva robots, where internal deployment at Tesla’s factories—including the converted Fremont line set for low-volume Optimus production this summer and high-volume output in 2027—will de-risk and accelerate broader commercial adoption. He also noted that Optimus could cut automotive cost of goods sold by about 5% through manufacturing efficiencies.
Separately, Erste Group raised Tesla from ‘Sell’ to ‘Hold’, citing improving sales and margins but cautioning that the stock’s high P/E ratio caps further upside. The broader Wall Street consensus remains a ‘Moderate Buy’ with an average 2027 price target of $404, implying a 3.3% downside. JPMorgan’s $475 target is one of the most aggressive on the Street.
