Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has declared that Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four‑year cycle, but he cautioned that the market may still need to carve one more significant low before a durable bottom is in place. In his latest “4‑Year Journey” update published on June 4, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of its February lows as a largely expected development rather than a deviation from historical cycle behavior.
He pointed out that Bitcoin’s rebound into May—when price approached the low‑$80,000 range after a drop toward $60,000—looked like a countertrend move inside a broader bear‑market structure. A cycle, Loukas argued, almost never ends on the first major decline from a peak; typically there is at least one lower low. Bitcoin peaked in October and subsequently broke below its 10‑month moving average, confirming the prior advance had ended. The rally off the February lows stalled near $83,000, close to his expected $85,000 level, before Bitcoin reversed and dropped roughly 25% back toward those lows.
Despite his view that a final low may not yet be in, Loukas said his model portfolio made its first purchase in three and a half years, buying 10 BTC at $65,000. He stressed this was not a call that the bottom is already in, but an attempt to start reaccumulating at more favorable long‑term levels. The key level now is $53,000. If Bitcoin reaches that area, his model portfolio would use its remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. That price roughly corresponds to the midpoint of the four‑year cycle structure and would represent about a 57% decline from the cycle high.
Loukas acknowledged that a move to $53,000 may appear severe but noted it would be only around another 15% lower from current levels, while Bitcoin had already fallen about $20,000 in the prior two to three weeks. He added that past bear markets produced much larger drawdowns—a 77% peak‑to‑trough decline in the 2021–2022 cycle, compared with the current drawdown of roughly 51% to 52%.
While Loukas assigns a 25% probability to a shorter cycle low forming now as a double bottom, his base case is that the cycle low should develop closer to the traditional window around October or November, with month 43 of the cycle now underway and the bottom zone typically averaging months 47–48. Near term, he sees Bitcoin as oversold enough to bounce toward the 10‑week moving average around $73,000 before resuming lower.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s decline to $59,000 on Friday—its lowest since before the 2024 U.S. presidential elections—has triggered other long‑term indicators. Crypto Rover noted that BTC fell below the rainbow chart for only the second time in recent history (the first was during the 2022 bear market), a signal that suggests deeply undervalued territory. Analyst CRYPTOWZRD highlighted the 200‑week exponential moving average, which has historically served as reliable bear‑market support. Bitcoin is now testing that level; holding above it would strengthen the case for a bottom forming in the low‑$60,000 range, while a breakdown could extend the correction.
Rekt Capital, comparing the current bear phase to 2022, observed that Bitcoin has so far deviated only 12% below its 2021 all‑time high, versus a 22% deviation in 2022. He concluded that while Bitcoin is getting close to a bottom, it may not be there yet. At press time, BTC traded at $62,247, leaving signals mixed as the market enters a make‑or‑break phase.
