Bitcoin’s sharp decline has pushed its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) to approximately 15.5, the lowest reading since the pandemic-induced crash of March 2020. The level is far below the oversold threshold of 30, signalling intense selling pressure. Analysts note that comparable RSI lows in 2020 and February 2026 were followed by recoveries of roughly 50% and 30%, respectively. The $60,000 mark is now seen as a crucial support; holding it could trigger a technical rebound toward the $70,650 region where the 20-day exponential moving average sits, while a breakdown risks a slide to the mid‑$50,000s.
On‑chain metrics underscore the stress. Short‑term Bitcoin investors’ profit‑loss ratios have fallen to historic lows, and analyst Scott Melker highlights that around 5.3 million BTC are held at a loss by long‑term investors — the highest unrealized loss figure since the 2020 sell‑off, surpassing even the FTX crash.
A separate analysis frames the sell‑off as a capital rotation rather than a structural collapse. Jeff Park, CIO of ProCap BTC, argues Bitcoin is being tapped for liquidity to fund hot trades such as SpaceX and Anthropic, not because conviction has evaporated. Conversely, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju describes MicroStrategy’s roughly 700,000 BTC accumulation as a stabilising force, absorbing supply that might otherwise have driven the price toward $22,000.
Liquidity has thinned across the board. Monthly spot volume sank to $679 billion in April — the lowest since October 2023 and down 46% year‑on‑year — while leveraged trading volume contracted to about $3.3 trillion. CryptoQuant warns that such volume contractions are a structural feature of bear markets, as marginal participants exit and remaining traders transact less, amplifying each leg down.
From a technical standpoint, a confirmed close below the $59,005 support would tip Bitcoin into bear‑market territory, exposing downside targets at $52,550 and then $49,000. With bearish sentiment dominating and little sign of a durable floor, traders are bracing for further downside unless the $59,005 level holds.
