Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to a potential Bitcoin bottom signal, as on-chain data from Glassnode shows that 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss. This threshold has historically appeared near major market lows in previous cycles.
The supply-in-loss metric tracks the number of Bitcoins whose current market value is below the price at which they last moved on-chain. According to Martinez, similar spikes in supply in loss occurred during the 2015 bear market, the 2018 downturn, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 collapse. In each case, the metric climbed toward extreme levels before Bitcoin eventually established a long-term bottom.
With more than 10 million BTC now underwater, selling pressure often begins to fade as holders become less willing to realize losses. While no single metric can pinpoint an exact reversal, Glassnode’s data places Bitcoin in a historically significant zone that has previously accompanied major cycle lows.
