Bitcoin’s 27% decline so far in 2026 has not shaken the conviction of analysts at Bernstein, who argue that the exodus of retail investors toward AI stocks masks a healthier, institutionally driven market. In a research note published Monday, the Global Digital Assets team said capital inflows have collapsed to roughly $12 billion year-to-date, down from $60 billion across all of 2025, with spot ETFs recording net outflows of $2.6 billion from a $75 billion asset base.
Instead of reading the data as a warning, Bernstein framed the shift as a mat event. “We believe this maturation phase of Bitcoin is less appreciated, and the criticism has largely come from its lack of retail momentum—which may not be a bad thing considering retail has crowded into AI,” the analysts wrote. They stressed that pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasuries now form a larger share of Bitcoin’s holder base, providing a more stable foundation than the speculative crowds of prior cycles.
The report highlighted the aggressive accumulation by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which raised $7.5 billion via its STRC preferred stock this year to acquire roughly 100,000 Bitcoin. The firm’s total holdings now exceed 845,000 BTC, valued at around $53.6 billion. Meanwhile, mining companies like IREN and Cipher Digital have pivoted toward AI data centers, capitalizing on the boom that has siphoned retail interest away from crypto.
Technically, Bitcoin remains under pressure. After rebounding from oversold levels near $59,000, the price now hovers around $63,800, still below key Fibonacci retracements and facing resistance at $64,800, where a bearish flag pattern and Supertrend converge. Despite these near-term headwinds, Bernstein maintained its year-end price target of $150,000—a potential new all-time high. “Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against it, and does not take away from the long-term ‘store of value’ thesis,” the note concluded.
