Prominent crypto analysts Benjamin Cowen and Doctor Profit have both issued cautious outlooks for Bitcoin, suggesting the market has entered the most psychologically taxing stage of the current bear cycle while still holding the possibility of a short-term rebound.
Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin managed to close last week above the 200-week moving average (200EMA), a signal he interprets as “the bulls have not yet given up.” He noted that the local lows from February were retested in June, aligning with his earlier forecast of a bottom forming this month, though he stressed it is still too early to confirm a definitive floor. Drawing parallels to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets – where an initial February low was followed by a deeper June low and a final capitulation in Q4 – Cowen expects a similar structure this year. He advocates a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach beginning in the second half of the year, noting that attempting to catch intraday dips is often futile. “Historically, my most successful strategy has always been to ignore Bitcoin in the first half of the year and start incremental purchases (DCA) in the second half,” Cowen explained. He added that if BTC holds above the 200-week MA for the next 1-2 weeks, a rebound toward the bear market resistance band in July becomes more likely.
Doctor Profit believes Bitcoin has officially entered Stage 5 of his six-stage bear market framework, a phase he calls the “biggest bear market trap.” He described the drop below $60,000 not as the final bottom but as a “trapdoor” into intense emotional pressure. The analyst maintains his ultimate downside target of $40,000–$48,000, calling it the “Confirmed BlackRock Bottom” – the price area where BlackRock launched its spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024. While he allows for short-term bounces toward $65,000–$66,000 if the $60,000 support holds, he expects violent swings that will exhaust both bulls and bears. Doctor Profit projects the final low will form between September and October 2026, potentially catalyzed by a major market event similar to the FTX collapse last cycle.
Amid the gloom, there were contrary signals. After BTC recovered near $63,000, Michael Saylor hinted at another Strategy (MicroStrategy) Bitcoin purchase with his signature “add more dots” message. Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan observed that this crypto winter is structurally different: investors are not merely seeking safety in Bitcoin but are increasingly rotating into smaller-cap assets with stronger fundamentals and clear revenue models.
The combination of ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions, and Strategy’s recent BTC sale has continued to weigh on the market, leaving traders braced for a volatile summer as the bear market cycle matures.
