Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning that the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment is absorbing liquidity that could otherwise have flowed into Bitcoin, while also linking rising oil prices to potential political pressure on tech stocks. In a detailed market commentary, the former BitMEX CEO argued that the capital glut directed at AI firms has left Bitcoin struggling to benefit from expanding dollar liquidity.
Hayes’s investment firm, Maelstrom, last week reduced exposure to several cryptocurrencies, selling HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC, while maintaining positions in Bitcoin and Ether. “I believe Bitcoin will dump then pump,” Hayes stated, predicting that a future crisis would prompt large‑scale monetary expansion that could reignite a crypto rally.
Hayes spotlighted energy costs as a core variable driving financial markets and politics. He claimed that rising gasoline and food prices would influence U.S. election outcomes more than campaign rhetoric, saying, “Tell me the change in gasoline and food prices, and I will tell you who wins.” He cautioned that if oil prices climb further ahead of the November election, former President Donald Trump might adopt anti‑AI rhetoric, pressuring stocks, banks, and Bitcoin simultaneously. He noted both Washington and Tehran have little incentive to compromise at current crude levels, leaving supply uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz intact.
The discussion extended to AI’s capital expansion since late 2022. Hayes noted that AI firms have issued approximately $1.5 trillion in debt during that period, while U.S. M2 money supply rose by a similar $1.5 trillion—implying that fresh liquidity largely bypassed digital assets. He warned that three risks now threaten AI valuations: higher energy costs, a wave of mega IPO supply (with SpaceX potentially debuting near $1.8 trillion), and political rhetoric. Hayes highlighted moments such as Tesla ($TSLA) falling 18% intraday after Trump threatened Musk‑linked contracts, and South Korea’s Kospi nearing limit down during AI tax debates, as evidence of the fragility.
“I exited several AI‑linked tokens,” Hayes confirmed, explaining that Maelstrom sold HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC. The portfolio trimming reflects a conviction that an AI stock correction could first drag down crypto before a later Bitcoin rebound. His core holdings remain Bitcoin and Ether, underscoring a defensive pivot amid mounting macro and liquidity concerns.
