Rocket Lab (RKLB) has entered a local bear market, declining 25% from its year-to-date high of $151 to $113.65, wiping out over $21 billion in market capitalization. The slump mirrors a broader sell-off in space stocks like Planet Lab and Virgin Galactic, as investors rotate away from high-flying names ahead of the much-anticipated SpaceX IPO.
Despite the recent pullback, Rocket Lab’s fundamentals remain robust. The company reported first-quarter revenue of $200.35 million, up 63.4% year-over-year, beating consensus estimates. Its backlog exceeds 70 launches, and the upcoming Neutron rocket promises to expand its payload capability significantly. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, and Needham have set price targets at $120, while New Street Research initiated coverage with a $150 target. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy.
Institutional interest continues to rise. CIBC Asset Management increased its stake by 36.5% in Q4, Vanguard added 13.4%, and the Swiss National Bank boosted its position by 67.7%. Institutions now control 71.78% of outstanding shares. Insider sales, such as SVP Arjun Kampani’s sale of 70,000 shares, were executed under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans primarily for tax obligations.
Technically, RKLB has held above the 50-day exponential moving average and the psychologically important $100 support level. The Relative Strength Index has dipped below 50, suggesting a neutral-to-oversold condition. Some chart analysts believe a dip to $100 could present a buying opportunity before a potential uptrend resumes, driven by the strong launch backlog and the SpaceX IPO catalyst later in the year.
